Research · MIT Technology Review
In the new study, published in Nature Energy, researchers aimed to improve predictions of fusion’s future price by estimating
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The team looked at three key characteristics that can correlate with experience rate: unit size, design complexity, and the need for customization.
Key facts
- Historically, the experience rate is 12% for onshore wind power, 20% for lithium-ion batteries, and 23% for solar modules
- Lithium-ion batteries are now about 90% cheaper than they were in 2013
- The final figure the researchers suggest for fusion’s experience rate is between 2% and 8%, meaning it will see a faster price reduction than nuclear power but not as dramatic an improvement as many
- This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review ’s weekly climate newsletter
Summary
Fusion power could provide a steady, zero-emissions source of electricity in the future—if companies can get plants built and running. Technologies tend to get less expensive over time. It’s tricky to make any predictions about the cost of a technology that doesn’t exist yet. One crucial measure is a metric called experience rate—the percentage by which an energy technology’s cost declines every time capacity doubles. Historically, the experience rate is 12% for onshore wind power, 20% for lithium-ion batteries, and 23% for solar modules.