Business · The Verge
Betting on the news lands ethical questions for journalists
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 outlet. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
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Report Business Policy Newsrooms are cutting deals with prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket while banning staff from using them.
Key facts
- On Polymarket, more than $55 million of trading volume went into the question of who would be named Time ’s 2025 Person of the Year, a selection made by the magazine’s editors
- A reporter who worked on a 2021 story about NBA owners avoiding taxes, for example, would have been barred from betting on basketball games
- TIME’s existing policy prohibits employees and members of their households from participating in prediction markets or similar activities that speculate on non-public information gained
- Using a non-work device, reach out to the reporter via email at, or on Signal at.11
Summary
Prediction market exchanges have created an environment where about any piece of information is potentially monetizable: How well will BTS’s new song perform this week? The rapid rise and expansion of Polymarket and Kalshi have put newsrooms in a strange position. Prediction market evangelists often claim that their odds are more trustworthy and accurate than polls and traditional media — effectively positioning the industry as a replacement for news. Earlier this week ProPublica announced it was updating its code of ethics to explicitly mention restrictions on how staff use prediction markets. ProPublica’s code of ethics already has restrictions on how staff can invest in outside companies they cover. The exception would be if a reporter was working on something like a story about the NFL or another sports league, at which point tighter restrictions might kick in.
Using a non-work device, reach out to the reporter via email at, or on Signal at.11. On Polymarket, more than $55 million of trading volume went into the question of who would be named Time ’s 2025 Person of the Year, a selection made by the magazine’s editors. “TIME’s existing policy prohibits employees and members of their households from participating in prediction markets or similar activities that speculate on non-public information gained through their employment at TIME,” spokesperson Kristin Matzen told The Verge in an email.