Bitcoin · CoinDesk
Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data indicates
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Several repeating trade sizes accounted for more than half the value traded on Kalshi's bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets, according to a CoinDesk analysis of the exchange's public trade records.
Key facts
- In Kalshi's case, the shifts from roughly $4,999 to $3,999, $4,499 and $5,499 suggest that the strategy’s notional-size parameters were periodically adjusted
- Trades clustered around $4,999 in CoinDesk’s earlier samples, while trades near $9,999 accounted for 72% of the sampled value on June 28
- On the ether market, trades valued within $2 of $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million in transactions CoinDesk analyzed from Sept. 17 through Sept. 20
- By June 19, three weeks after Kalshi launched its cryptocurrency perpetual futures, trades worth almost exactly $4,999 accounted for 37% of the ether contract value CoinDesk sampled that hour
Summary
Trades valued near $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57 percent, of the Kalshi ether perpetual-futures volume CoinDesk analyzed from Sept. 17 through Sept. 20. Recurring fixed-dollar trades appeared on 43 of 46 sampled dates since June, suggesting automated trading and raising concerns that several participants may be driving much of the market’s reported activity. Kalshi’s public data does not identify the traders or establish any wrongdoing, and the exchange did not explain who produced the repeated trades or why their target values changed.