Wall Street · U.S. · Fortune Technology
In a report published Thursday, the bank’s research team made a typically sweeping claim for a Wall Street bank assessing
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It is more powerful than both, and the productivity boom it will eventually deliver could be 10x larger than anything the economy is currently showing.
Key facts
- For those investments to generate even a 10% return, Klement calculated that hyperscalers need to find $2 trillion to $5 trillion in additional annual revenue, a quadrupling of their current base
- The 10x figure comes from work by economist Philippe Aghion and co-authors published in 2024, which plugged more current AI capability estimates into a standard productivity model and found
- AI is already delivering task-level productivity gains that would have seemed implausible five years ago: software developers completing 55% more work with AI coding tools, customer support agents
- From a macro perspective, the AI boom is already 60% larger than the dot-com bubble at its peak, with tech investment accounting for 93% of all U.S. GDP growth, far beyond the 56% peak
Summary
Bank of America has a message for anyone who has grown skeptical of the AI boom: you are thinking too small. In a report published Thursday, the bank’s research team made a typically sweeping claim for a Wall Street bank assessing the supposed artificial intelligence boom. The problem is that the economy is currently showing 0.1%, “a small aggregate effect relative to all the excitement around AI,” the bank admitted. Whether that argument holds is the most consequential open question in economics right now, and not everyone on Wall Street is buying it. The gap between AI’s micro-level fireworks and its macro-level footprint is real, documented, and striking.