Russia · New York · Israel · Fortune Technology
While Russia has argued GDP scaled up by about 13% between 2020 and 2024
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Moscow has also lowballed inflation substantially, according to Stenergard, who pointed out that Russia’s official inflation figure in 2024 was 10% while the central bank hiked interest rates to 21% that year.
Key facts
- While Russia has claimed GDP expanded by about 13% between 2020 and 2024, Sweden’s analysis of nighttime luminosity suggests the economy shrank by 8% during that span
- Moscow has also lowballed inflation substantially, according to Stenergard, who pointed out that Russia’s official inflation figure in 2024 was 10% while the central bank hiked interest rates to 21%
- In fact, a survey from Russia’s state-owned pollster showed Putin’s approval rate has fallen to 65.6% from 77.8% at the start of the year and prewar levels well above 80%
- Russia’s government has estimated the workforce will need 3.1 million more workers by 2030, according to Interfax
Summary
The Swedish government has come up with some drastically different economic figures on Russia that make the Kremlin’s official data seem like a Potemkin village. In a New York Times op-ed on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard cautioned the West against overestimating Russia and said the economy is more fragile than it appears. While Russia has claimed GDP expanded by about 13% between 2020 and 2024, Sweden’s analysis of nighttime luminosity suggests the economy shrank by 8% during that span. Similarly, Sweden’s military intelligence chief has estimated that today’s inflation is likely closer to the current benchmark borrowing cost of 15% than the government’s official reading of 5.2%.