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World Bank forecasts 23% commodity price surge as Middle East war disrupts supply
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Global commodity prices are forecast to rise 23% in 2026 as the Middle East war, disruptions to grain shipments and growing demand for safe-haven assets push up energy, food and metals prices, the World Bank has warned.
Key facts
- In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday (October 28), the bank warned that simultaneous shocks to global supplies could worsen inflation, threaten food security and slow economic growth.
- Although overall commodity prices are projected to decline by 7% in 2027, further military escalation, damage to Russian oil infrastructure and extreme weather could keep prices elevated.
- Global energy prices are projected to increase 32% in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of declines and reaching their highest level since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
- The World Bank expects global oil production to fall 5.2% this year, the steepest decline in more than four decades outside the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
- Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average approximately US$92 a barrel in 2026 as supply shortages keep international energy markets under pressure.
- The bank expects global oil consumption to decline 2.5%, the third-largest annual contraction on record, following the reductions experienced during the 2020 pandemic and the 1980 oil crisis.
Summary
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday (October 28), the bank warned that simultaneous shocks to global supplies could worsen inflation, threaten food security and slow economic growth.
Although overall commodity prices are projected to decline by 7% in 2027, further military escalation, damage to Russian oil infrastructure and extreme weather could keep prices elevated.