Japan · Nation Thailand
NESDC warns oil may stay high as Praipol sees US$90 a barrel in 1–2 months if wars ease
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Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has warned that prolonged high oil prices could put pressure on inflation and the current account. Energy economist Praipol Koomsup has called for broader fuel tax cuts, while sugges
Key facts
- Prices could fall towards US$90 a barrel, or US$60–70 in the best case, if tensions in the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war eased, he said.
- Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC, said unresolved fighting in the Middle East and damage to oil infrastructure could keep international prices elevated for an extended period, or push them higher.
- Danucha said rising oil prices were already feeding through to Thailand’s consumer price index, although he believed headline inflation could remain within the target framework, whose upper limit is 3%.
- Thailand’s official medium-term headline inflation target is a range of 1–3%, rather than a fixed target of 3%.
- Asked about a reported monthly increase of as much as 50% in goods imports, Danucha said the figures should be examined across a full quarter and broken down by product category
- On whether Thailand needed further economic stimulus, Danucha pointed to private consumption growth of around 3.7% as evidence that domestic spending remained resilient.
Summary
Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC, said unresolved fighting in the Middle East and damage to oil infrastructure could keep international prices elevated for an extended period, or push them higher.
Prof Dr Praipol Koomsup, a former dean of Thammasat University’s Faculty of Economics and an independent energy analyst, offered a more optimistic conditional outlook. Prices could fall towards US$90 a barrel, or US$60–70 in the best case, if tensions in the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war eased, he said.