The Thaiger
Vietnam GDP set to surpass Thailand in size by 2030
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Vietnam GDP projections now put the country ahead of Thailand when economic size is adjusted for purchasing power and on course to overtake it in nominal terms by around the end of the decade.
Key facts
- World Bank figures for 2025 put Thailand’s nominal GDP per person at US$8,056.60, around 59% higher than Vietnam’s US$5,066
- World Bank figures put Thailand’s economy at US$577 billion in 2025, compared with US$514.7 billion for Vietnam
- IMF projections put Vietnam’s PPP-based economy at US$2.025 trillion in 2026, making it Southeast Asia’s second largest behind Indonesia and placing it ahead of Thailand.
- For its next target, Vietnam aims to reach high-income status by 2045, and the World Bank estimates that doing so would require average per-capita GDP growth of around 6% a year for the next two decades, alongside a move towards
- The IMF expects growth of only 1.5% this year, while the Bank of Thailand reported household debt equivalent to 86.7% of GDP at the end of 2025
- Thailand’s economy grew just 1.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 as household consumption weakened.
Summary
But Thailand remains considerably richer per person, meaning overtaking it in economic size and catching it in prosperity are two very different milestones.
World Bank figures put Thailand’s economy at US$577 billion in 2025, compared with US$514.7 billion for Vietnam. Yet Vietnam expanded 8% that year, while Thailand grew 2.4%.