The Thaiger
Experts rule out repeat of 2011 Thailand floods
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Thailand is not heading for a repeat of the devastating 2011 floods, according to two leading disaster and environmental specialists, even as heavy rain continues to soak parts of the country this week.
Key facts
- Thailand is not heading for a repeat of the devastating 2011 floods, according to two leading disaster and environmental specialists, even as heavy rain continues to soak parts of the country this week.
- Rangsit University’s Climate Change and Disaster Centre director, who also works with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a marine and environmental academic at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Fisheries, both say a
- He warned, however, that rising sea temperatures and evaporation, with atmospheric water vapour up roughly 7% per 1°C of warming, mean localised “rain bombs”
- Flows at Nakhon Sawan currently sit at around 1,800 cubic metres per second, against as much as 4,600 in 2011.
- Climate: 2011 saw La Niña bring early, doubled rainfall, while 2026 is under El Niño heading towards a “super El Niño.”
- Cyclones: five tropical storms hit Thailand directly in 2011, versus none so far this year.
Summary
Rangsit University’s Climate Change and Disaster Centre director, who also works with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a marine and environmental academic at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Fisheries, both say a nationwide flood disaster on the scale of 2011 is “virtually impossible” this year.
They point to different climate patterns, sharply lower northern river flows and a much smaller flooded area so far. Still, both caution that western Thailand faces run off risk, and that so called “rain bombs”, or intense localised downpours, could still trigger flash flooding in cities.