Nation Thailand
Pansak cites billion-dollar toll from Thai-Cambodia conflict
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Thailand and Cambodia are paying a mounting economic and humanitarian price for their border conflict, with the mass return of Cambodian workers exposing how deeply the two neighbouring economies depend on each other, according to a third-party analysis shared by veteran Thai policy adviser Pansak Vinyaratn.
Key facts
- The commentary put Cambodian workers’ remittances at US$2.8 billion in 2024, equivalent to 6.1% of GDP.
- The analysis also cited US$5.1 billion in Chinese foreign direct investment in Cambodia during 2025 and export growth of 17.7%, arguing that these inflows and new trading relationships helped soften the impact of the confrontation.
- The commentary argues that the departure of about 900,000 Cambodian workers has delivered a shock on both sides of the border
- An assessment by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office used a lower estimate of about US$2 billion, or 5.6% of GDP, but reached a similar conclusion about the risk
- It described household debt as equivalent to 170% of GDP, but SCB Economic Intelligence Centre reported a household debt-to-GDP ratio of 85.9% in the first quarter of 2026
- The analysis also attributed to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce a forecast that Thailand’s economy would contract by 0.74% in 2026, with export losses of 66.6 billion baht.
Summary
The commentary argues that the departure of about 900,000 Cambodian workers has delivered a shock on both sides of the border. Cambodia has lost remittance income and must absorb a large returning workforce, while Thai farms, factories and other labour-dependent businesses face worker shortages.
Entitled “The Billion-Dollar Border: Five Surprising Truths About the Thailand-Cambodia Conflict”, the analysis was posted on Pansak’s personal Facebook account.