China · Japan · Nation Thailand
Thai businesses urged to build resilience as global order shifts
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Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Vitai Ratanakorn has warned that the world is moving away from globalisation and entering an era shaped by geopolitics and geoeconomics, making uncertainty a permanent feature of the business environment.
Key facts
- The central bank continues to forecast that the Thai economy will expand by 2.3% in 2026, although the country’s long-term growth potential has weakened because of structural problems.
- Vitai noted that the Thai economy was still expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, above the roughly 2% forecast by several research organisations.
- In the longer term, the surplus may remain at only 2-3% of GDP before beginning to recover in 2027.”
- However, the more serious concern was the decline in Thailand’s potential GDP growth rate, which had fallen from 5% to just 2.7%.
- Vitai revealed that, when global tensions were at their highest in March, the BOT had estimated that Thailand’s economic growth could slow to just 1.5%.
- Under that scenario, the non-performing loan ratio could have risen from 2.8-2.9% to more than 4%.
Summary
The central bank continues to forecast that the Thai economy will expand by 2.3% in 2026, although the country’s long-term growth potential has weakened because of structural problems.
Against this backdrop, Vitai urged Thai businesses to strengthen their resilience to withstand emerging risks.