Reuters · Japan · Nation Thailand
IMF trims global outlook as Middle East war and AI risks linger
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The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) is built on the fragile assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in mid-July, with shipping gradually returning to pre-war conditions by March 2027.
Key facts
- The forecast, finalised on 10 June, also assumes an average oil price of US$89 a barrel.
- The Fund lowered its 2026 global growth forecast again, trimming it to a sluggish 3.0 per cent on Wednesday (July 8).
- Growth is expected to rebound to 3.4 per cent in 2027, although that would remain below the 3.5 per cent average recorded in 2024 and 2025.
- In April, the IMF had expected growth of 3.1 per cent for 2026.
- The IMF raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points from April to 4.7 per cent, before an expected fall to 3.9 per cent in 2027.
- The IMF now sees trade growth falling to 3.5 per cent in 2026 from 5 per cent in 2025, when activity was boosted by heavy front-loading ahead of US tariffs.
Summary
The forecast, finalised on 10 June, also assumes an average oil price of US$89 a barrel.
The Fund lowered its 2026 global growth forecast again, trimming it to a sluggish 3.0 per cent on Wednesday (July 8).