European Union · Nation Thailand
ASEAN illicit tobacco surge costs Thailand 45bn baht
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Illicit cigarettes are becoming a larger fiscal and enforcement headache across Southeast Asia, with Thailand losing more than US$1.3 billion, or around 45 billion baht, in government revenue over two years, according to a new EU-ASEAN Business Counc
Key facts
- The report, Inside ASEAN’s Illicit Tobacco Market: Data, Trends, and Emerging Patterns, published in 2026, examines the illicit tobacco market in six major ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
- Illicit cigarettes alone reached an estimated 85 billion sticks in ASEAN-6 in 2025, generating fiscal losses of US$6.3 billion and illicit operator gains of around US$6 billion, the report said.
- The report estimated that illicit cigarettes made up 23.6% of Thailand’s cigarette market in 2025, up from 22.6% in 2024
- The figure is projected to climb to 26.6% by 2028 if the trend continues.
- Government revenue losses from illicit tobacco in Thailand were estimated at US$1.35 billion over 2024-2025, almost entirely from illicit cigarettes
- Thailand’s VNL 2026 fate on the line as bottom-ranked team faces relegation and 2027 exclusion
Summary
The report, Inside ASEAN’s Illicit Tobacco Market: Data, Trends, and Emerging Patterns, published in 2026, examines the illicit tobacco market in six major ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It found that illicit tobacco products, including cigarettes and e-vapour products, accounted for 23.6% of consumption in ASEAN-6 in 2025, or almost one in four products consumed. The share is projected to rise to 27.8% by 2028.
Illicit cigarettes alone reached an estimated 85 billion sticks in ASEAN-6 in 2025, generating fiscal losses of US$6.3 billion and illicit operator gains of around US$6 billion, the report said.