Nation Thailand
Iran Ceasefire Brings Market Calm, but Thailand’s 2026 Economic Pain Persists
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 outlet. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
◌ Single Source
KResearch holds 2026 GDP growth target at 2.0% as sticky energy prices, US tariffs, and a markdown in tourism arrivals cloud the second-half outlook.
Key facts
- Thailand’s economy is bracing for a turbulent second half of 2026
- KResearch projects that the economy expanded by 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, but expects growth to slow sharply to 0.9% in Q2, before recovering to 2.7% in Q3 and easing to 1.7% in Q4
- Instead, it forecasts Brent crude to average $90 per barrel for 2026, holding closer to $100 in the second half of the year.
- KResearch has already conservatively revised full-year export growth down to 8.2% (from 12.9% in 2025), bucking the double-digit optimism of other forecasters.
- Thai exports surged by roughly 14% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 due to tech demand and front-loading ahead of trade deadlines.
- On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, Q2 is forecast to contract by 1.0%, underlining a sharp loss of early-year momentum.
Summary
Thailand’s economy is bracing for a turbulent second half of 2026. KASIKORN Research Center (KResearch) is holding its full-year growth forecast at 2.0%, warning that while the immediate threat of a wider Middle East war has receded, the recovery remains fragile.
At a press briefing on Tuesday, the research house noted that the United States-Iran ceasefire has calmed markets but failed to undo months of structural damage to global energy prices, trade flows, and business sentiment.