Thai Enquirer
JSCCIB Raises 2026 Growth Forecast on Stimulus, Export Surge but Warns of K-Shaped Economy
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Thailand’s Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast and sharply upgraded its export outlook on Wednesday, citing stronger domestic spending and a boom in technology exports, while warning that much of the economy remains excluded from the benefits of rising trade and foreign investment.
Key facts
- The committee now expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.6%-2.0% this year, up from its previous forecast of 1.2%-1.6%.
- Exports expanded 18.9% during the first four months of 2026, led by technology products, which surged 48.4% amid growing global demand linked to AI and data-centre development
- JSCCIB also revised its export forecast to growth of 8%-10%, a dramatic turnaround from its earlier projection of a contraction of 0.5%-1.5%
- Inflation is now expected at 2.5%-3.0%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.0%-3.0%.
- The country’s refining industry has reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, cutting the share of imports from the region to around 27% from approximately 55% previously
- Imports from alternative sources have risen to about 73%, helping strengthen supply flexibility and energy security.
Summary
The committee now expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.6%-2.0% this year, up from its previous forecast of 1.2%-1.6%.
JSCCIB also revised its export forecast to growth of 8%-10%, a dramatic turnaround from its earlier projection of a contraction of 0.5%-1.5%. Inflation is now expected at 2.5%-3.0%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.0%-3.0%.