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New US tariff could threaten Thai exports
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A new US tariff could pose a severe threat to Thai exports in the latter half of this year, causing fresh trade uncertainties, say economists and businesses.
Key facts
- Thai export growth in the second half of 2026 could remain flat from last year if tariffs under Section 301 of the US Trade Act go ahead next month, said Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center
- The think tank recently lifted its 2026 export growth forecast to 8.2% from 1%.
- A new US tariff could pose a severe threat to Thai exports in the latter half of this year, causing fresh trade uncertainties, say economists and businesses.
- Fourteen countries or regions could be subject to a 10% tariff under Section 301, comprising Canada, Ecuador, El Salvador, Argentina, the EU, the UK, Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Taiwan.
- Thailand would be among 46 countries subject to a 12.5% tariff, along with China, Brazil, South Korea and Switzerland.
- Imports from Thailand are currently subject to a 10% tariff rate under Section 122, compared with the 19% “reciprocal”
Summary
Thai export growth in the second half of 2026 could remain flat from last year if tariffs under Section 301 of the US Trade Act go ahead next month, said Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
Section 301 authorises the US Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate and impose retaliatory tariffs or trade restrictions on countries that engage in “unfair, unreasonable” or discriminatory policies that burden US commerce.