Thai Enquirer
Thailand Holds Rate at 1% as War Clouds Outlook, Growth Seen Slowing - Thai Enquirer Market Watch
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Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously (6–0) to keep its policy rate at 1.00% on April 29, as the war in the Middle East weighs on growth and pushes up inflation risks.
Key facts
- The Bank of Thailand projects GDP growth at 1.5% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with the conflict expected to raise business costs, erode household purchasing power and weigh on private consumption and tourism
- Thailand Q1 GDP Growth Accelerates to 2.8% as Investment, Exports Surge
- Thai Enquirer News Summary – May 19, 2026
- Thai Enquirer News Summary – May 18, 2026
- Thai Enquirer News Summary – May 15, 2026
- Headline inflation is forecast to average 2.9% in 2026—potentially exceeding the 3% upper target temporarily—before easing to 1.5% in 2027
Summary
The Bank of Thailand projects GDP growth at 1.5% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with the conflict expected to raise business costs, erode household purchasing power and weigh on private consumption and tourism. While pre-war data had pointed to stronger-than-expected momentum, the outlook has since weakened. Exports remain a key support, particularly from global demand for technology products.
Headline inflation is forecast to average 2.9% in 2026—potentially exceeding the 3% upper target temporarily—before easing to 1.5% in 2027. Core inflation is seen at 1.6% and 1.5%. The MPC said price pressures are largely supply-driven, led by higher global energy costs.