Bangkok Post
Housing sector latest victim of war
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Given the sagging economy and conflict in the Middle East, the residential market is expected to contract for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, weighed down by persistent high household debt, rising living costs and tight lending, according to Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (EIC).
Key facts
- Given the sagging economy and conflict in the Middle East, the residential market is expected to contract for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, weighed down by persistent high household debt, rising living costs and tight lending, according to Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (EIC).
- Total nationwide housing transfers in 2026 are forecast to decline by 5% year-on-year to 824 billion baht.
- In a prolonged conflict scenario, the contraction could deepen to 10-15%, reflecting fragile purchasing power and heightened uncertainty.
- "A key concern remains tightening mortgage approvals, with rejection rates exceeding 50-60%," said Surachet Kongcheep, head of research at property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield Thailand.
- Although government measures such as incentives for homes priced less than 7 million baht and relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) rules were introduced, they have yet to translate into a meaningful recovery in demand, he said.
Summary
Total nationwide housing transfers in 2026 are forecast to decline by 5% year-on-year to 824 billion baht.
In a prolonged conflict scenario, the contraction could deepen to 10-15%, reflecting fragile purchasing power and heightened uncertainty.