Business · Fortune Technology
A 160-year-old paradox explains why AI will create more lawyers and accountants—not fewer, top economist says
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In 1865, English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that the invention of the Watt steam engine — which improved the efficiency of the coal-fired steam engine — made coal a more effective energy source.
Key facts
- Underemployment is surging, with the New York Fed finding the underemployment rate for recent college graduates hit 42.5% in Q4 2025—its highest level since 2020
- After steadily increasing starting in 2023, the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds, those around college age, rose to a high of 9.2% in September
- Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff put that idea to practice, saying he’s hiring 1,000 more entry-level workers to build the company’s AI systems
- In 2025, the industries most vulnerable to AI automation saw the most job growth, according to a December 2025 Vanguard report, finding that instead of replacing workers, the technology is making
Summary
In a note on Tuesday, Apollo Global Management’s influential chief economist Torsten Slok applied the Jevons paradox to the AI age. In this scenario, labor is playing the role of coal, meaning as AI adoption increases, the technology will beget more jobs, not fewer. “When steam engines made coal more efficient, Britain didn’t burn less coal, it burned more,” Slok wrote in a note. Slok’s assertion flies in the face of Silicon Valley’s conventional wisdom for the age of AI. The problem is that the future, to paraphrase a common saying, is like a foreign country.