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From maritime trench warfare to a ‘sloppy peace’: Here’s how the Strait of Hormuz standoff could play out, according to Goldman Sachs
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Unless Iran’s regime collapses, the Strait of Hormuz will never be open like it was before the war, according to Jared Cohen, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute and the bank’s president of global affairs.
Key facts
- Unless Iran’s regime collapses, the Strait of Hormuz will never be open like it was before the war, according to Jared Cohen, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute and the bank’s president
- The United Arab Emirates also has pipelines that can send oil to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz
- You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control,” Cohen predicted
- For now, both sides are observing a “sloppy ceasefire” where they refrain from launching ballistic missiles and drones at each other
Summary
Since the U.S. and Israel launched their war in late February, Tehran has discovered how much leverage it can wield over the global economy by closing off the Strait of Hormuz, he said Friday on CNBC. “You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control,” Cohen predicted. For now, both sides are observing a “sloppy ceasefire” where they refrain from launching ballistic missiles and drones at each other. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has imposed a blockade on Iran-linked ships, even sending boarding parties of Marines to seize control of them, aiming to choke off Tehran’s top source of revenue.