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AI and Iran are keeping Bitcoin price in ‘no-trade zone’ until Fed wakes up, says Arthur Hayes
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Arthur Hayes explains why Bitcoin investors are panicking, and what needs to happen for the cryptocurrency to rally.
Key facts
- Let’s say a median US knowledge worker earns between $85,000 to $90,000 annually
- If they lose their job, and file for unemployment, their income plunges to around $28,000 per year, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics and the St. Louis Fed
- In an April 16 essay, the BitMEX co-founder and crypto hedge fund manager explained that his hedge fund Maelstrom “did fuck all trading in the first quarter” of 2026 as two grisly forces left Bitcoin
- If the war ends immediately, Bitcoin might bounce as high as $90,000, but Hayes won’t invest until the Fed provides liquidity to plug holes in bank balance sheets
Summary
Arthur Hayes said investors are paralysed because of AI and the war in Iran. Bitcoin is stuck in a “no-trade zone” and Arthur Hayes isn’t deploying any new capital into the market until the Federal Reserve injects new capital into the economy, he said on Thursday. In an April 16 essay, the BitMEX co-founder and crypto hedge fund manager explained that his hedge fund Maelstrom “did fuck all trading in the first quarter” of 2026 as two grisly forces left Bitcoin trying to find a direction. Agents are replacing knowledge workers at scale, threatening a deflationary collapse, Hayes said. To create new dollars, colloquially known as "money printing," the Fed buys Treasury bonds from banks, injecting fresh cash into the financial system. AI eats jobs For some time the refrain was that AI will eat your job. Another engineer managed to ship in four days a product that was expected to take six months.
If they lose their job, and file for unemployment, their income plunges to around $28,000 per year, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics and the St. Louis Fed . To pay bills and day-to-day living, they’ll have to lean into consumer credit. What happens if they don’t have enough to pay back that debt? If the war ends immediately, Bitcoin might bounce as high as $90,000, but Hayes won’t invest until the Fed provides liquidity to plug holes in bank balance sheets.