Axios · New York · White House · Axios
Fischer won by 7.Beto O'Rourke led Ted Cruz at 9pm in 2018 with nearly half of Texas counted
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Cruz won by 3.
Key facts
- Elissa Slotkin led Mike Rogers by 13 points at 9pm in 2024, trailed by 3 at midnight and won by less than half a point
- The red head start: In every national election since 2018, the House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final result, an Axios analysis of AP
- The Senate was settled by 10:44pm on election night in 2018 and at 12:06am the next morning in 2024
- Cruz won by 3.In 2020, Kansas Republican Roger Marshall was down by 8 points at 9pm, even though he'd eventually win by double-digits
Summary
Data: AP via The New York Times and Axios research; Chart: Andrew Pantazi/AxiosThe first votes counted Tuesday night will almost certainly look redder than the final result, and control of the House and Senate could take days to settle. AP didn't call control of the House until seven or eight days after Election Day in each of the past three elections. The Senate was settled by 10:44pm on election night in 2018 and at 12:06am the next morning in 2024. In 2022, it took four days, and in 2020, it wasn't called until Georgia's January runoffs, two months later.