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Yang cautioned that spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, are too recent to assess

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Median monthly Bitcoin return by calendar month since January 2013. Source: Kaiko.

Despite two consecutive October losses, analysts cautioned against writing off Uptober entirely.

Key facts

Summary

Bitcoin lost 7.3% in October 2026 after another decline the previous year, despite the month’s historically strong returns, as analysts reassess seasonal signals. Bitcoin’s back-to-back October losses have put its “Uptober” reputation under the microscope as analysts weigh seasonal trends against institutional demand and economic conditions. Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, following a roughly 4% decline a year earlier, according to CoinGlass data. The losses defied October’s historically bullish reputation, which earned it the nickname “Uptober.” This year, industry figures turned to darker labels, including “Black October” and “Hacktober,” amid a wave of crypto security incidents, including Binance’s record-breaking $6.3 billion hack. October has historically delivered Bitcoin’s highest median return at 15.4%, with gains in 10 of 13 years through 2025, according to Andrew Yang, a researcher at crypto analytics firm Kaiko.

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