Republicans · Democrats · US Senate · Polymarket · Donald Trump · Fortune Technology
Following a sudden GOP slide, a top data scientist’s model gives Democrats 90% odds of taking the Senate as Kansas trends blue
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Data scientist Thomas Miller’s site handicapping outcomes for the U.S. Senate races now shows overwhelming odds that the Democrats will take control, numbers much more commanding than even the polls and prediction markets are showing.
Key facts
- In the Iowa run for an open seat, Republican Ashley Hinson held an almost 62% shot at victory as of Sept. 17
- ET on Monday, Miller’s site, Virtualtout.io, gave the Democrats a 90% chance of winning at least 51 seats
- The Republicans’ best chance comes in Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins sits at 34.7%
- Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, won kudos for correctly forecasting that Democrats would sweep the two Georgia Senate runoffs in early 2021, when the polls and pundits posited GOP
Summary
Data scientist Thomas Miller’s site handicapping outcomes for the U.S. ET on Monday, Miller’s site, Virtualtout.io, gave the Democrats a 90% chance of winning at least 51 seats. A major reason from the quick downdraft, and a sign of the blue wave’s strength: Democrats now hold the lead in longtime red stronghold Kansas, and have turned Iowa into a virtual toss-up. Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, won kudos for correctly forecasting that Democrats would sweep the two Georgia Senate runoffs in early 2021, when the polls and pundits posited GOP wins in both. His methodology: Miller starts by incorporating the “prices” posted on the two prediction markets boasting the highest volumes, Kalshi and Polymarket, and translates those numbers into probabilities of a Democrat or Republican win.