Polymarket · Bitcoin · Ethereum · CoinDesk
Polymarket brings ultra-short crypto prediction markets to U.S. service
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Prediction platform Polymarket rolled out five-minute crypto up-or-down betting contracts on its regulated U.S. platform.
Key facts
- Traders can bet on whether a cryptocurrency will end a five-minute period above or below its starting price, allowing investors to capitalize on ultra-short-term price movements in bitcoin BTC
- Kalshi recorded more than $1 billion in crypto event-contract trading in March 2026, according to a research paper published by ArXiv
- The study identified 821 wallets associated with settlement periods that researchers classified as manipulated and estimated $8.2 million in profits linked to those trading patterns
- For the older products, the researchers also found that bitcoin spot order flow increased by roughly 50% during the final 10 seconds of the contracts
Summary
Polymarket started offering five-minute cryptocurrency bets on its regulated U.S. platform, with correct predictions paying $1 per share and incorrect predictions paying nothing. Researchers flagged suspected settlement manipulation in earlier contracts, but their findings predate settlement-rule changes and do not establish manipulation of the new U.S. products. The introduction comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigates Polymarket’s compliance with a 2022 settlement and examines customer protections on its U.S. platform, . Traders can bet on whether a cryptocurrency will end a five-minute period above or below its starting price, allowing investors to capitalize on ultra-short-term price movements in bitcoin BTC $76,811.58, ether ETH $2,196.17, solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP).