Polymarket · US Senate · Democrats · CryptoSlate
Kalshi’s Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election
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Prediction exchange Kalshi’s Senate markets showed different Democratic odds on Oct. 28, but buying a four-contract hedge at the quoted prices cost $3.02 before fees for a $3 gross payout only if the control and seat-count outcomes aligned.
Key facts
- Prediction exchange Kalshi’s Senate markets showed different Democratic odds on Oct
- The package combines one YES on Democratic Senate control with one NO on each of three disjoint seat outcomes: exactly 51, exactly 52 and above 52
- If control YES loses but Democrats end up in a 51-plus bucket, only two seat-NO contracts pay, totaling $2
- Its rounding documentation also distinguishes direct-member balances, aligned to $0.0001, from non-direct-member balances, aligned to $0.01
Summary
01 An Oct. 28 Kalshi snapshot priced four Senate contracts at $3.02 before fees, exceeding their conditional $3 gross payout. 02 Control can resolve early on media calls, while seat contracts use February composition, exposing the hedge to different settlement outcomes. 03 Displayed depth, fees and collateral-return settings affect execution and the cash committed to the four positions. The Senate-control market had a 64.5% midpoint at 22:11:45 UTC, while a normalized estimate from the Democratic seat-count markets put the chance of 51 or more seats at about 62.1%.