Bitcoin · JPMorgan · The Block
Bitwise raises bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, projects 34% annualized returns
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Crypto asset manager Bitwise has raised its 10-year bitcoin Bitcoin BTC +0.65% forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, projecting the largest cryptocurrency will generate a 34.3% compound annual growth rate during the period.
Key facts
- Crypto asset manager Bitwise has raised its 10-year bitcoin Bitcoin BTC +0.65% forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, projecting the largest cryptocurrency will generate a 34.3% compound annual
- The report comes as the market continues to debate whether bitcoin's June lows of around $58,000 mark the end of the latest bear cycle, with its price since rallying around 40% to above $80,000
- For its $1.6 million base case, Bitwise assumes bitcoin will capture 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036
- Bitwise noted that the approximate 53% drawdown from an October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 would represent a significantly shallower drop than prior cycles, which saw bitcoin fall 86%, 84%
Summary
That represents around five times the 6.7% annual return forecast for U.S. equities and three times the 10.8% forecast for the next-best asset class, private equity, based on average projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard. Bitwise's revised forecast comes from its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Wednesday, an annual report analyzing bitcoin's potential returns, volatility, and corrections over the coming decade. Bitwise calculates its bitcoin price target by estimating the future size of markets the cryptocurrency could compete in, then assigning bitcoin a share of each.