OpenAI · AI Safety · AGI · Alignment Forum
Aside: Miles has a bet with Gary Marcus on AI progress
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In July, Metaculus assigned Gary a 90% chance of winning, but more recently it dropped to 30%.
Key facts
- In July, Metaculus assigned Gary a 90% chance of winning, but more recently it dropped to 30%
- The reporter also have no doubt Eliezer Yudkowsky would be skeptical of the notion of 80/20-ing
- Towards the end of 2024, Steve Newman offered another possibility: what if AI is moving fast, but the “distance” to travel is longer than most people think, since they only become aware of the limitations of models over time
- This reading was previously included Day 2 of the BlueDot Governance course
Summary
This reading was previously included Day 2 of the BlueDot Governance course. A short extract: Miles argues that: “At best, they'll 80/20 it, mitigating 80% of the risks with 20% of the effort that they would have applied in a world with slower AI progress and an earlier start on serious governance… The team will probably not be able to totally avoid all bad but not worst-case scenarios (e.g., a unjust economic transition that causes a lot of suffering and suicides, rampant AI psychosis and addiction, a poorly planned and rushed transformation of the education system, smaller-scale AI-enabled terror attacks that “only” kill thousands or millions, and stable AI-enabled totalitarianism in at least a few countries for a few decades)“:. At risk of taking you down a rabbit hole, the reporter will add some context on this reading. AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years.