CLARITY Act · Bitcoin · US Congress · Bitcoin Magazine
Adverse legislation would be blocked from reaching the president’s desk
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Kalshi gives Republicans a 10% chance to keep the House and a 35% chance to keep the Senate.
Key facts
- The House passed its version in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote
- On the Senate floor, a cloture vote failed 49-50 on September 15
- The bill would set the rules for bitcoin and other digital assets, and the industry has spent $176 million on more than 100 races to shape the outcome
- Prediction markets cited in the report give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 62% chance of winning the Senate
Summary
TD Cowen says a Democratic sweep would stall the CLARITY Act, while regulators keep advancing rules that favor the crypto sector. Washington’s crypto agenda hinges on next week’s midterm elections, according to a new policy note from TD Cowen, shared with Bitcoin Magazine. Analyst Jaret Seiberg warned in the note that the probable results could make it difficult for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act over the next two years. Prediction markets cited in the report give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 62% chance of winning the Senate. Warren cannot stop regulators from adopting policies that favor the industry.