Polymarket · Donald Trump · Pete Hegseth · Pentagon · U.S. · Ars Technica
Hegseth signals prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops
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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo warning military personnel against using nonpublic information to make bets on prediction markets, saying the wagers could give important clues to enemy countries.
Key facts
- In April, a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to make $410,000 in Polymarket bets on the timing of the military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás
- Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain,” said the subject line of an October 20 memo published yesterday by CBS News
- In another incident, a Trump teleprompter aide reportedly made $100,000 on Kalshi by betting on what Trump would say in prepared remarks
- When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal
Summary
“Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain,” said the subject line of an October 20 memo published yesterday by CBS News. Their enemies watch movements in these markets. When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal. In April, a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to make $410,000 in Polymarket bets on the timing of the military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Hegseth’s memo said the prohibition applies to “all financial platforms,” including traditional betting services and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.