Democrats · Republicans · Donald Trump · Axios
The big unknown behind Democrats' polling leads
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Poll after poll spells trouble for GOP candidates, in purple states and deep-red ones alike, but while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage.
Key facts
- But that has risks: "The adjustment assumes that the Republicans who respond to a poll are similar to the Republicans who don't respond to the poll," Rice University political science assistant
- Even with the questions about the accuracy of recent polls, most pollsters believe Democrats have the edge heading into Election Day
- Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult
- With less than a month until the midterms, the polls paint a bleak picture for Republicans
Summary
Midterm polling has been more accurate, though some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, notes Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center. With less than a month until the midterms, the polls paint a bleak picture for Republicans. Research suggests Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys, and response rates overall have plummeted since the late 1990s, per Pew. "We definitely have more people answering surveys who voted for Harris than who voted for President Trump," says Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster and founder of Cygnal.