Strategy · Michael Saylor · Bitcoin · The Block
Strategy shareholders face dilution drag despite brighter bitcoin forecasts, TD Cowen confirms
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 source. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
★ Tier-1 Source
TD Cowen raised its bitcoin forecasts but kept its $260 price target on Strategy (MSTR) unchanged, saying dilution and the company's financial obligations will likely limit upside for its shareholders.
Key facts
- TD Cowen's updated model puts bitcoin near $109,000 at the end of 2026, and $280,000 by 2029
- That outlook is more bullish than QCP Capital's fourth-quarter base case of $80,000 to $90,000
- Strategy shares fell roughly 2.5% to $150, leaving them down nearly 5% year to date
- Bitcoin was trading near $81,300 on Thursday and remains down 9% year-to-date despite its recent recovery
Summary
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete maintained their Buy rating, arguing that higher bitcoin prices should help boost Strategy's earnings potential. "Capital structure expansion and associated dilution temper the per-share benefit," the analysts wrote in Thursday's report. Strategy shares fell roughly 2.5% to $150, leaving them down nearly 5% year to date. Buying more bitcoin doesn't necessarily translate into larger gains for Strategy shareholders, the analysts said.