Circle · Coinbase · US Senate · CLARITY Act · The Block
Coinbase, Circle shares positioned for crypto recovery as estimates stabilize: William Blair
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William Blair analysts said Coinbase shares (COIN) offer an attractive entry point for investors after gaining 31% since July 14, despite depressed spot trading volumes.
Key facts
- Jeffrey, cut their 2026 EBITDA estimate by 11% to $810 million but left 2027 and 2028 roughly unchanged, arguing estimates may be nearing a trough
- Retail derivatives generated about $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter, while prediction markets reached $100 million in the second quarter, together accounting for roughly 6%
- William Blair analysts said Coinbase shares (COIN) offer an attractive entry point for investors after gaining 31% since July 14, despite depressed spot trading volumes
- Bitcoin also remains the key near-term driver of Circle's (CRCL) valuation, William Blair analysts said in a separate note, with CRCL shares up 52% since bitcoin's July 1 low
Summary
They expect a flurry of regulatory rulemaking following the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act, including the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent tokenized-equity trading exemption, to improve sentiment and potentially support Coinbase heading into 2027. Analysts, led by Andrew W. "Everything Exchange (we hate that term) signals diversification," the analysts wrote in a note to clients. Retail derivatives generated about $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter, while prediction markets reached $100 million in the second quarter, together accounting for roughly 6% of estimated 2026 revenue but growing quickly and offering revenue streams less correlated with spot trading.