Polymarket · Bitcoin · US Congress · White House · 99Bitcoins
Polymarket’s 2026 Odds Reset Puts Bitcoin Risk in Focus
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Polymarket’s Balance of Power 2026 Midterms contract showed a reported record 60% market-implied probability of a Democratic sweep of Congress, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
Key facts
- Election Day is November 3, 2026, and the S&P 500 has historically posted its most volatile stretches in the third and fourth quarters of midterm years
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- Polymarket’s Balance of Power 2026 Midterms contract showed a reported record 60% market-implied probability of a Democratic sweep of Congress, according to The Kobeissi Letter
- The Kobeissi Letter noted that roughly 20 percentage points of the sweep-odds increase arrived since the Iran war began, underscoring how sensitive these contracts are to macro shocks
Summary
Two Different Bets, One Fast-Moving Market: What's the Strongest Prediction? Election Day is November 3, 2026, and the S&P 500 has historically posted its most volatile stretches in the third and fourth quarters of midterm years. (Source, Polymarkets, Balance of Power 2026 ) It’s worth separating what these contracts ask.