Polymarket · CoinDesk
Both platforms prohibit trading from some EU countries but leave others off their restricted lists, ESMA said
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“It is unclear why all EU Member States are not included in the list of restricted jurisdictions,” it wrote, citing risks of unauthorized services and breaches of existing retail trading restrictions.
Key facts
- Tokenized equities lead RWA inflows as the market recovers; Binance's bStocks hit ~$118.5M in two months, now #2 issuer and ~90% of on-chain equity DEX volume
- It also noted that bitcoin fell 35% in the first half of 2026, while smaller tokens lost as much as 61%
- Pablo Hernandez, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), on Thursday stopped short of also predicting an AI bubble
- The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) warned that major prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi lack the authorization generally required to serve EU users, while flagging
Summary
The European Securities and Markets Authority warned that major prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi lack the authorization required to serve EU users. ESMA noted that event contracts may fall under existing EU binary-options bans, crypto-asset frameworks like MiCA or national gambling laws. The regulator also warned that heavy AI spending is inflating tech valuations, and a resulting stock sell-off could drag down closely tied crypto assets. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) warned that major prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi lack the authorization generally required to serve EU users, while flagging the growing vulnerability of crypto assets to a potential sell-off in technology stocks. “The marketing and sale of event contracts in the EU generally requires an EU authorisation, which the largest prediction market platforms currently do not hold,” the regulator said in a risk report released on Thursday.