New York · Bitcoin · Federal Reserve (FED) · China · CryptoSlate
Why Bitcoin bulls shouldn’t mistake a shrinking dollar reserve share for central bank buying
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A Sept. 2, 2026 analysis by New York Fed researchers shows how a few large reserve portfolios can lower the global dollar share without a broad retreat from dollars.
Key facts
- Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui and Sneha Parthasarathy report that the dollar share of global official foreign-exchange reserves fell from 64% at year-end 2015 to 56% at year-end 2025, using IMF COFER data
- For 2019-2023, the 62 countries with complete data contributed a positive 0.3 percentage point through preferences and a negative 0.5 percentage point through reserve-size changes
- The underlying Staff Report 1087, issued in March 2024 and revised in February 2026, separates reserves needed for liquidity from an investment portion above those needs
- Bitcoin is -0.58% over the past 24 hours and currently sits at rank # 1 by market cap
Summary
01 New York Fed analysis found the dollar’s reserve-share decline reflected both currency choices and changing reserve sizes. 02 That distinction matters because a shrinking dollar share does not establish sovereign demand for Bitcoin or identify diversification’s destination. 03 Evidence of sovereign Bitcoin demand would require disclosed allocations, funding sources, executed purchases, and clear reserve classifications. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui and Sneha Parthasarathy report that the dollar share of global official foreign-exchange reserves fell from 64% at year-end 2015 to 56% at year-end 2025, using IMF COFER data.