Polymarket · France · CLARITY Act · US Senate · White House · Bitcoin.com News
French Hill Highlights CLARITY Act as 2026 Passage Odds Hit 15%
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 2 sources. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
◎ Multiple-sources
Prediction-market traders assign the CLARITY Act only a 15% chance of becoming law in 2026.
Key facts
- The Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633 by a 15-9 vote on May 14, moving it toward floor consideration
- The official Senate schedule states that the cloture motion on proceeding to H.R. 3633 will ripen at 2:15 p.m
- A Polymarket contract on 2026 enactment showed a 15% chance on Sept. 2 that the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would pass both chambers and receive the president’s signature by Dec. 31
- Kalshi gave the CLARITY Act, or another qualifying crypto market structure bill, a 30% chance of becoming law before July 1, 2027, and a 50% probability before Jan. 1, 2028
Summary
A Senate cloture motion on the bill ripens at 2:15 p.m. Washington’s effort to establish national rules for crypto trading, custody, and market oversight now centers on the CLARITY Act. Prediction-market traders remain doubtful that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will complete the legislative process this year. The low probability contrasted with House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill’s renewed reference to the legislation during a Sept. 2 hearing on growth, affordability, innovation, and access to capital.