White House · Polymarket · Donald Trump · NPR Technology
What a fake poll shares about worries around prediction markets and the midterms
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The prediction market app Kalshi is displayed on a mobile phone Thursday, April 16, 2026, in Chicago.
Key facts
- The prediction market app Kalshi is displayed on a mobile phone Thursday, April 16, 2026, in Chicago
- A screens display the home page of the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, Polymarket, on April 29, 2026
- Rahil Prakash, who The Guardian revealed to be the man behind the fake polling outfit, does have an account on Kalshi
- Prakash's made-up company, Median Strategies, released polls focused on the Los Angeles mayor's race and elections in Wisconsin and Nevada
Summary
Earlier this month, after news broke that a phony company had released fake election polls, it prompted immediate speculation that the stunt was an attempt to manipulate prediction markets, fears especially pronounced with midterms right around the corner. The 21-year old man behind the fake polls posted a statement saying the bogus polls were "a short-term social experiment" to see how fast the fabricated figures would circulate in news stories and social media. But the suspicion was understandable, considering the spate of high-profile market manipulators uncovered in recent months on the surging prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket, where billions of dollars of bets flow in every week on everything from baseball games to the future of the Trump administration's policies.