Nvidia · Bitcoin · Federal Reserve (FED) · Decrypt
What Traders Are Watching for Bitcoin's Next Move
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Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 after a rally that briefly took it above $81,000 got interrupted by a hot inflation report.
Key facts
- Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 after a rally that briefly took it above $81,000 got interrupted by a hot inflation report
- Bitcoin fell from above $81,000 to below $78,000 within hours of the release
- US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs pulled in $2.6 billion in new money last week, their best week since October 2025, though most of the funds' growth came from existing coins simply gaining value
- Roughly $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expire on the derivatives exchange Deribit this Friday, the same day as the Jackson Hole keynote
Summary
Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 after a hot PCE inflation reading knocked it back from an $81,000 high, with a $6.4 billion options expiry, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, and Nvidia earnings all landing within 48 hours of each other. The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 38.4% chance of a September rate hike, down from 82% a month ago, with the Fed's next decision due September 16. Analysts are split on what comes next, with some calling this the late stage of a bear market bottoming out and others warning of a bull trap if Bitcoin can't clear $82,000. Each one pulls a different lever on Bitcoin’s price, and together they make this one of the more consequential stretches of the year for Bitcoin.