Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Israel · Donald Trump · Fortune Technology
The Iran war could last ‘deep into 2027’ as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t that closed, allowing more oil to leak out—but major
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One of the hottest debates in the energy industry right now is how much oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf, and the answer could determine how long the Iran war lasts.
Key facts
- Until the election, Trump could maintain the blockade and hope for the best as long as Brent crude stays below $90-$100 per barrel, Alamariu wrote
- David Wech, chief economist at energy intelligence firm Vortexa, told CNBC on Friday that the average over the last month has been 6 million-7 million barrels a day
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military helped ship over 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the strait on Tuesday, though the seven-day average is 8 million
- Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank, said Trump has erased the distinction between economic warfare and military conflict in the eyes of Iran’s
Summary
Iran insists the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that it has control of the narrow waterway, which saw 20 million barrels of oil a day pass through before the U.S. and Israel started the war. But the Trump administration has pushed back on that narrative. Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Axios that about 10 million barrels of oil a day are being transported out of the strait through a corridor the U.S. military established that runs along Oman’s coast. A two-week stretch of U.S. bombing last month degraded Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance systems, the report said, making it easier for tankers to sail through undetected at night with their transponders turned off.