Anthropic · OpenAI · China · U.S. · Meta · Fortune Technology
Thirdly, U.S. open-weight models will become genuine alternatives to the Chinese ones and win real adoption as a result
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They will also have a clearer business model, making it easier for customers to take longer-term bets.
Key facts
- Spending on AI now runs, by their estimate, to somewhere between 0.5 and 1 percent of all white-collar salaries in the United States
- And in the same period competition at the frontier has intensified, with Meta (Muse Spark 1.1) and xAI (Grok 4.5) both fielding increasingly capable models alongside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google
- Zhipu’s GLM 5.2 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 now perform at or near the frontier on several important benchmarks
- Led by Thinking Machines’ Inkling and Nvidia’s Nemotron 3, highly capable, if not yet at the frontier, they offer a domestic alternative to the Chinese releases
Summary
Two celestial bodies orbiting each other trace stable, predictable paths. A few events over the last few weeks and months have increased the instability in the system. Spending on AI now runs, by their estimate, to somewhere between 0.5 and 1 percent of all white-collar salaries in the United States. And in the same period competition at the frontier has intensified, with Meta (Muse Spark 1.1) and xAI (Grok 4.5) both fielding increasingly capable models alongside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google. Then there is the improvement in open models, especially from Chinese companies. Led by Thinking Machines’ Inkling and Nvidia’s Nemotron 3, highly capable, if not yet at the frontier, they offer a domestic alternative to the Chinese releases. And finally, there is the reaction to these developments from AI application companies. Firstly, the discomfort with frontier pricing will ease, partly because competition will push prices down, and partly because the returns on AI spend will begin to show.