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The bond market is currently pricing risk correctly, according to Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke—and what it’s pricing in is ugly.
Key facts
- The robot maker’s IPO raised around $900 million at a valuation of $9 billion
- The problem: the 10-year is at 4.696%, and the 30-year is at 5.284%
- Bessent has said he wants the 10-year yield to carry a “3 handle”—meaning below 4%—and multiple reports describe a widely understood marker around 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year
- Unitree is now valued at $66 billion, lifting it far above both domestic and foreign competitors like China's UBTech and the U.S.'s Figure AI. [Photo: Julien de Rosa via Getty Images.]
Summary
Why there are always fewer than 100 emails in Siemens CEO Roland Busch’s inbox. Hanke said, “the bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation” in reference to the investors who have served as the scourge of administrations for decades, selling government debt en masse to punish what they see as reckless fiscal or monetary policy, ultimately driving yields higher until policymakers change course. Bessent has said he wants the 10-year yield to carry a “3 handle”—meaning below 4%—and multiple reports describe a widely understood marker around 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year as his upper red lines. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has declined to give the market “forward guidance” and investors have responded to that uncertainty by selling off U.S. bonds.