Polymarket · Federal Reserve (FED) · Bitcoin · Ethereum · Decrypt
Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 source. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
★ Tier-1 Source
Prediction markets are converging on the same forecast for the Federal Reserve's September meeting: don't expect anything to change.
Key facts
- At its July meeting, the FOMC held the rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9–3 vote, with three members pushing for a hike
- The FOMC meets September 15–16, with its statement due September 16
- market puts the odds of no change at 74%, with a quarter-point hike at 25% and a cut near 1%, on $33.9 million in volume
- Prediction markets are converging on the same forecast for the Federal Reserve's September meeting: don't expect anything to change
Summary
Polymarket is pricing in a 74% chance of no change at the next Fed meeting, and 25% on a quarter-point hike. Kalshi's September Fed-decision contract prices a 73.5% hold, with roughly $10 million wagered on the outcome. Myriad's "Fed Decision in September?