Germany · Federal Reserve (FED) · Crypto Briefing
Bond markets already looking past summer as Jackson Hole looms, says Tradition Dubai’s Steven Major
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The former HSBC fixed-income veteran sees long-end yields pricing in a world where central banks stay higher for longer, and the August symposium as the next catalyst.
Key facts
- UK 2-year gilt yields sit at 4.12% as of August 17, well above where most economists peg the neutral rate
- Since early February 2026, the 2s10s yield curve has flattened by 17 basis points in the US, 21 basis points in the UK, and 23 basis points in the Eurozone
- Across the Channel, Eurozone 2-year yields range from 2.43% in Germany to 2.67% in Italy
- Major, who joined Tradition Dubai in December 2025 after spending 24 years at HSBC, has been one of the more closely watched voices in fixed income this year
Summary
It’s mid-August, and the bond market has apparently decided that beach season is over. Major, who joined Tradition Dubai in December 2025 after spending 24 years at HSBC, has been one of the more closely watched voices in fixed income this year. Since early February 2026, the 2s10s yield curve has flattened by 17 basis points in the US, 21 basis points in the UK, and 23 basis points in the Eurozone. UK 2-year gilt yields sit at 4.12% as of August 17, well above where most economists peg the neutral rate.