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CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 10% Before Senate Returns: Galaxy
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Galaxy Research now puts the CLARITY Act’s chance of passing this year at 10%, ahead of a possible Senate procedural vote in September.
Key facts
- The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs advanced the measure 15-9 on May 14, with two Democrats joining every Republican
- Galaxy raised its estimate to 75% on May 22, up from 55% before the Senate Banking Committee’s markup
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) filed a motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, in the final hours before recess, then sought cloture on that motion
- Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at the digital-asset firm, stated the revised figure in an Aug. 14 post on X, down from 75%
Summary
A Senate cloture motion on the bill ripens at 2:15 p.m. Odds that the CLARITY Act passes this year have fallen to 10%, according to Galaxy Digital (Nasdaq: GLXY). Senators return to Washington on Sept. 14 and face a working period of roughly three weeks before leaving for midterm election activity around Oct. 2. “The reality is that CLARITY is now much more about politics than policy.”