Polymarket · Donald Trump · CryptoSlate
Prediction markets are becoming financial data, but a 63% price does not always mean 63% odds
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PredictionBubbles is a dashboard that maps prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, onto one screen.
Key facts
- An unreviewed July working paper analyzing roughly 23 million Kalshi NBA, MLB, and NHL moneyline trades found calibration was strongest during the middle of contracts and deteriorated in the final 10
- In a limited sample of 12,639 filtered parlay trades collected over 15 days, median pricing for two- to four-leg combinations was at or slightly below parity, while overpricing became clearest
- In April, ProCap Financial said Kalshi Research would feed real-time prediction market figures into ProCap Insights
- Kalshi said in May that institutional trading volume had increased 800% in six months, a company-reported figure
Summary
01 PredictionBubbles maps Polymarket and Kalshi markets onto one dashboard of bubbles showing probability, price movement, and volume. 02 The tool gives traders a screening layer for thousands of markets, using filters and bubble sizing like stock or crypto heat maps. 03 Recent papers show raw prediction prices can mislead without context, leaving open how to interpret contract terms and late-trading effects. The platform turns its tradable questions into bubbles that show probability, price movement, and volume, offering a discovery view of two venues that have traditionally required users to browse individual markets.