White House · Polymarket · Federal Reserve (FED) · Donald Trump · NPR Technology
Feds probe 'mention markets' amid White House Kalshi controversy
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Federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called "mention markets" on prediction market sites, where people bet millions of dollars on what a speaker may or may not utter.
Key facts
- Kalshi data shows that people who bet that Pitt was not there collectively lost $287,866
- Inside Kalshi, employees have debated the usefulness of mention markets, with Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara especially championing them, according to the former Kalshi staffer
- When one of the Fox sportscasters mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt, several news organizations mistakenly reported that Pitt was there
- Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded every week on the site, so taking down mention markets for sporting events will significantly cut into the category
Summary
Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called "mention markets" on prediction market sites, where bettors wager millions of dollars on the word choice of everyone from President Trump to soccer sportscasters, according to two people with direct knowledge of the probe who spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. In response, Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the U.S., has removed all mention markets from its betting offerings for sports as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursues its inquiry, according to one of the people.
Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded every week on the site, so taking down mention markets for sporting events will significantly cut into the category.