Bitcoin · U.S. Treasury · CoinDesk
Forecasts for $1 million bitcoin price likely look too ambitious, key ratio suggests
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The $1 million bitcoin call is back, again.
Key facts
- Bitcoin's spot price rose to $126,000 in 2025, well above the previous cycle's high of nearly $70,000
- The 30-year Treasury yield cleared 5% this year and is sitting at its highest level since 2007
- Asset manager Bitwise is the latest to predict that bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade
- Coinbase's Brian Armstrong, Block's Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest's Cathie Wood have all said versions of it
Summary
Most lofty targets are based on the assumption that money will rotate out of gold and other assets and into bitcoin, but ignore opportunity cost. Bitcoin's price relative to the 30-year Treasury yield never made a new high in the 2025 bull run, unlike its dollar price. That ratio has now broken down through a multi-year support line, completing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Asset manager Bitwise is the latest to predict that bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade.