In a paper published on Thursday in Nature, researchers show that the WeatherNext AI model can predict cyclones with unprecedented
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On average, it gives forecasters a day more lead time than existing models; this means its predictions three days out are as accurate as previous models’ predictions two days out.
Key facts
Melissa marked the first time the National Hurricane Centre could predict a Category 5 hurricane when the storm was only at a Category 1 stage
Last year, the AI model created 50 scenarios per storm; now, it generates 1,000
In October 2025, a storm brewed over the Caribbean Sea
Five days before landfall, it predicted with 80 percent confidence that the storm system would hit Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane
Summary
In October 2025, a storm brewed over the Caribbean Sea. Five days before landfall, it predicted with 80 percent confidence that the storm system would hit Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Melissa was catastrophic, causing flooding and landslides across Jamaica. In a paper published on Thursday in Nature, researchers show that the WeatherNext AI model can predict cyclones with unprecedented accuracy. “Even a few hours can make a difference,” says Mike Brennan, director of the US National Hurricane Center. Historically, bringing forecasts forward by a day would take a decade of work, the researchers say.