Saudi Arabia · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Wall Street · India · Fortune Technology
The world is looking ahead toward a post-Iran oil market that offsets most Hormuz volumes in a few years as releases reject a
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Iran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place, but global oil markets could nearly eliminate their dependence on the contested waterway in a few years.
Key facts
- By the end of 2028, the figure could rise to more than 60%, with an “accelerated scenario” pushing it to 75%
- The UAE has fast-tracked its new West-East pipeline, which is already 50% done and could come online early next year, according to Kpler
- Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimated in a note last week that enough Mideast pipeline capacity will likely be added to insulate over 45% of pre-war Gulf exports by the end of next year
- Goldman put median construction time for pipeline projects in the region at 2.5 years, “with construction typically occurring more rapidly in response to supply disruptions
Summary
Despite more than a week of daily bombardment, the U.S. military has failed to secure an alternate corridor through the strait that bypasses Iran’s approved route, as the regime’s drones and missiles scare away commercial vessels. On Friday, no crossings via the U.S.-backed route were detected, and no “shadow fleet” movements were recorded either, while Iran’s channel saw seven transits. U.S. assurances have been insufficient. But one seafarer replied, “F— off,” according to a recording reviewed by the Wall Street Journal.